LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 16,949 on Monday and closed above 17,000 after the index consolidated due to lack of cues. Wednesday saw a gap-up at 17,111 after a day off on account of Eid. There was a heavy fall and the repo rate hike led to an even larger fall. The fall continued on Thursday after a temporary up-move. NIFTY fell with a gap-down on Friday due to the weak global sentiments and consolidated thereafter. The index closed the week at 16,411, down by 691 points or 4%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 35,683 on Monday and moved up. 36,300 offered resistance and BNF fell further. 34,400 acted as a huge support on Friday and BNF closed the week at 34,591, down by 1497 points or 4.15%. 

All the sectors fell last week.

Foreign Institutional Investors net sold shares worth Rs 12,700 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net bought shares worth Rs 8,500 crores.

The markets revolved around inflation and interest rate hikes. The Repo rate was hiked by 40 basis points on Wednesday taking the investors to surprise and the markets fell heavily. Cash Reserve Ratio also was increased by 50 basis points. US Fed reserve increased the interest rate by 50 basis points and the US markets shot up as it was in line with the expectations but fell heavily the next day.

Bank of England increased the interest rate by 25 basis points. But what led to the concerns was the inflation projection by BOE at 10%. The interest rate in England is now at the peak since 2009.

Our markets fell much more than the West.

LIC IPO has been oversubscribed.

SGX NIFTY is at 16,419.

INDIA VIX rose to 21.3.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 16,340, 16,250, 16,000 and 15,850. We can expect resistances at 16,450, 16,660, 16,880  and 16,950.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 34,400, 34,000 and 33,500. Resistances are at 34,800, 35,000 and 35,250.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,000 followed by 17,400. The highest put OI build-up is at 16,000 followed by 16,400.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 36,000 and the largest put OI build-up is at 34,000.

The markets will first react to the Reliance earnings which were good but still short of estimates. 

April CPI will be a major concern as the expectations are around 7.5%. If the figure crosses the estimated value, then you can expect a further fall.

Keep an eye on crude oil as there are supply concerns.

I will be closely watching 16,000 on the downside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

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