The US Presidential Election has been one hell of a ride. The two candidates have their horns locked. An entire nation is divided based on two opinions, one supporting Donald Trump and the other supporting Joe Biden. There is absolutely no certainty as to who would be the next President of the United States of America. There are some serious allegations of rigged elections and malpractices in the voting process. The elections matter a lot to the global markets as both Trump and Biden have opposing policy, agenda, and political prospects. What would happen if Donald Trump fails to accept defeat?

Has he actually lost? Have the results been declared officially? Can the Supreme Court have a say? 

  1. Current Situation of US Election
  2. Who Wins? Trump or Biden?
  3. What Now?

Current Situation of US Election

  • Donald Trump is adamant and refuses to concede. He is still the President of The United States of America. He says that the elections were tainted/rigged and has approached the courts in certain states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and possibly more in the future. Trump is likely to approach the Supreme Court of the US
  • Trump’s Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo has announced that he is embarking on a seven-nation tour to Europe and Asia to strengthen political, diplomatic, and administrative ties. 
  • Trump’s members of staff have refused to cooperate with the transition team of Joe Biden, which would help in transferring the administrative charge from the Trump Administration to Joe Biden’s Administration.
  • Trump has fired Mark Esper, the Defence Secretary of the United States along with some other senior defense officials. Moreover, there are rumors that he may fire FBI boss Christopher Wray, CIA Director Gina Haspel. Trump is considering planting ‘loyalists’ in their place. Are we looking at the possibility of a Military Coup?
  • Recounting of ballots is currently in progress in some of the disputed states. A thorough scrutiny of postal ballots has been ordered in many states.

Who Wins? Trump or Biden?

Well, Trump is adamant. He is less likely to concede and won’t back out for long. It is made clear from his public announcements and social media posts that he is in for a long brawl. On the other hand, Joe Biden is the president-elect, since he has managed to secure more than 270 electoral votes, which is the requirement to become President. Trump meanwhile is still at 217 electoral votes. Considering this, the following are the possibilities:

  1. Biden Wins: Trump is the President, but only till 20th January 2021, the Presidential Inauguration Day. If Trump fails to prove his claims of a tainted election till then or he decides to concede, he will cease to be the President and Biden will be sworn-in. If a new President is not elected by January 20 noon, the House Speaker, Democrat Nancy Pelosi would become the acting President.

2) Trump Wins: Let us say Trump approaches the Supreme Court and gets it to order a major recounting of votes. If Trump gains a majority in the vote recount and not Biden then there are chances that Trump might be re-elected

If for some reason Biden decides to concede, even then Trump can become President. However, the chances of that happening are very less.

3) Contingent Elections: If none of the candidates win a complete majority in the electoral college after the recounting or a president cannot be determined, there would be a Contingent Election. In a Contingent Election, the members of the Upper House or the House of Representatives vote for and elect the President while the Lower House or the House of Senate elects the Vice-President. Currently, The Republicans dominate the Senate and The Democrats dominate the House of Representatives. 

What Now?

Joe Biden is the official ‘President-Elect’, yet there is high uncertainty as to who would become president in the US. Biden has the majority but Trump isn’t totally wrong about a ‘mismanaged’ election. There were indeed instances of Postal Ballots being rejected because they ‘reached late’, while some postal ballots were even reported misplaced. Some voters suggest that they were given ‘sharpie pens/markers’ which would ‘easily get smudged’ and therefore invalidate their votes.

The current election isn’t the first time that the Presidential Election in America has faced a turbulent patch. In 2000, Republican candidate George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore faced a very similar situation. Eventually, Al Gore ended up conceding and George Bush became President, all of this with a margin of just 600 votes. There are many similarities between the 2000 Presidential Race and the 2020 Presidential Race. 

America has been the flag bearer for Democracy, in the sense that other countries look up to it in terms of the implementation of fundamental democratic rights. However, Trump’s actions have made its democratic spirit questionable for the first time.

America as of this moment is bitterly divided on the political axis. Neither sides’ victory will fetch a significant positive or negative sentiment. It is advised that market participants actively look into the agenda and strategy of both Trump and Biden. Both have entirely different insights to offer to the global market. 

To know more about how the US Elections can affect the stock market, check out our article over here.

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